PhronesisWe apply the Displacement Framework to compulsive disaster-preparedness—the syndrome in which an agent devotes substantial cognitive, emotional, and material resources to planning for catastrophic scenarios in contexts where those scenarios are not genuinely probable, at a cost to present inhabitation that exceeds any realistic safety benefit. We formalize the wrong attractor W_ CCDP and its ground state S^0, which we define as calibrated resilient agency: the configuration in which the agent maintains proportionate readiness for genuine risks while remaining fully present to ordinary life, capable of inhabiting the current moment without treating it as a waiting room for catastrophe.
The paper identifies and formally proves three self-sustaining mechanisms that stabilize W_ CCDP. First, preparation-as-control: the act of planning for catastrophe provides the illusion of agency over inherently uncontrollable events, making preparation psychologically rewarding even when it yields no real safety gain. Second, preparedness-gap-as-threat: any unaddressed contingency in the preparedness portfolio generates acute anxiety proportional to the perceived catastrophic severity of that scenario, driving further planning in a self-reinforcing loop.
Third, preparedness-as-identity: the self-concept of the agent becomes organized around being “the one who is ready,” making any reduction in preparedness behavior an identity-level threat rather than a practical recalibration. We distinguish compulsive disaster-preparedness from legitimate emergency preparedness (earthquake kits, fire evacuation plans, financial reserves), professional risk management, and health anxiety, establishing a formal criterion: the distinguishing marker is whether preparedness prevents present inhabitation.
We analyze the developmental roots of W_ CCDP in early exposure to unpredictable catastrophe, environments modeling chronic vigilance, and experiences of being caught unprepared with severe consequences. We formally establish the preparedness paradox: that the marginal safety yield of additional preparation approaches zero while the displacement cost grows monotonically. Return paths through present-inhabitation practice, probability calibration, preparedness-sufficiency thresholds, and identity decoupling are derived and analyzed.
Nine propositions with formal proofs characterize the geometry of the survival-contingency basin.