PhronesisWe apply the Displacement Framework to conspiracy theories and conspiratorial thinking, formalizing the epistemic ground state S°_epist as calibrated belief — probability assignments proportional to evidence, tolerance for genuine uncertainty, and Bayesian updating on new information. Conspiracy theories are formalized as epistemic wrong attractors W_CT with two defining structural properties: stability against disconfirmation (evidence against the theory is reinterpreted as confirming it via landscape deformation φ) and self-reinforcement (investigation deepens commitment).
Nine formal propositions are derived covering: the epistemic ground state as honest unknowing, CT as high-basin-depth wrong attractor, pattern-recognition overdrive as entry mechanism (apophenia activated by distressing uncertainty D(ξ_uncertainty)), epistemic closure as basin sealing via landscape deformation, social embedding as additive basin deepening (Δ_total = Δ_epist + Δ_social), the radicalization ratchet (internal gradient toward extremity), institutional opacity as legitimate displacement parasitized by CT wrong attractors, inoculation theory as counter-deformation (pre-emptive basin shallowing), and exit path requirements (identity disruption, social basin reduction, trusted messenger).
The framework explains why direct debunking fails (deepens the basin) and why identity-preserving off-ramps succeed.